This week Russia started naval combat exercises with their friends in Caracas. This is the first time the Russin\an Navy has been in Caribbean waters since the end of The Cold War. One has to ask, what’s with all the aggression from Russia lately? Perhaps it’s not aggression but posturing. I think what all the U.S. policy makers in Washington are failing to realize is that Russia is rebuilding their military. The energy market has boosted Russian coffers to the point where exorbitant military expenditures are feasible again. What does that mean for the United States?

The Good. Much good has come out of this for the United States. There clearly is a winner in the conflict, and it is the United States. Poland has signed a missile accord with the United States. Ukraine has offered to create a joint missile defense network with NATO, and clearly its prospects for NATO membership have increased. It was a mistake not to admit Georgia to NATO as the Bush administration wanted at the Bucharest Summit in April 2008. But German Chancellor Angela Merkel and the French resisted, won the day. Now, four months later, the world has changed and the Germans and French have come around on this issue. Let’s hope that Georgia is admitted to NATO.

The Bad. Wars always inflict great suffering and this one is no exception. Their military has been defeated, although—importantly—not destroyed, and the objective of securing South Ossetia is dashed. No doubt, Georgia will be re-armed after the conflict subsides with even better conventional weaponry. For the population caught in the conflict, the suffering is far greater than in Kosovo in 1999 (anyone remember that war?). There are reports that the Russians are using Chechen mercenaries and troops serving in the notorious Vostok Battalion. One can only hope that when the dust settles Georgia’s new found friends in Berlin and Paris, and Washington, D.C., stay with Tbilisi.

And The Ugly. Russia is trying to re-assert its dominance in the Caucasus at the expense of the United States and NATO. Russian military performance has been awful according to the Russians themselves. They have criticized the air force’s performance, specifically the suppression of gun emplacements and other close air support missions. Other criticisms involve the lack of jointness which resulted in absence of coordination in the attack. This all the more surprising if, as some Russian military analysts think, that the invasion was planned months, or even as much as years ago, under the guise of the “Kavkazksiy Rubezh” exercises.

Meanwhile, the Russians are doing their best to begin Cold War Redux. The crude threat to arm its Baltic fleet with tactical nuclear weapons only serves to push Europeans into the arms of the United States. No doubt there will be further demands and threats from Moscow in the days and months ahead.